Written by Trevor Ritchie
Don’t call it a comeback. HITP went 3-2 on NFL picks in Week 1 (6-4 overall including CFB) and we’re back for more chasing the over alongside two favorites, two dogs and yet another lock of the week. No risk it, no biscuit — so let’s ride.
Best Bets
Chargers -2.5 at Titans
Inside three points, take Los Angeles here. The Chargers may have failed to cover in their opener, but we’re also talking about a team that went 11-5-1 ATS a year ago. Los Angeles won over 80 percent of its games when favored on the money line and 75 percent as a money line favorite of -145 or less. Don’t hang your hat on Tennessee covering against the Saints last week. The Titans went 3-7 SU as the underdog in 2022 and 2-4 SU in games as an underdog of at least +120. Both sides exit this one at .500.
Ravens +140 at Bengals
Didn’t plan on fading Cincinnati two-straight weeks, but here we are. I’m selling all of my Bengals stock right now, especially after their 24-3 loss against Cleveland. Burrow threw for just 82 yards. Mixon posted a mere 56 yards — 22 on one run. No, Baltimore isn’t the most profitable team dating back to last season; however, getting +140 on the money line is something you just can’t pass up. The Ravens held Houston to 72 rushing yards in its 16-point win last week, and if they can find a way to limit Cincinnati’s run game similar to what Cleveland accomplished last week — it’s an upset waiting to happen. Forget the points. Take the Ravens outright.
Chiefs -3 at Jaguars
Let me be clear. I’m high on Jacksonville and watched their 10-point road win against a 3.5-point spread in Indianapolis, but this is the worst time possible to face Kansas City. I don’t believe in a universe where the Chiefs open with losses against the Lions and Jaguars. Extra rest. Extra motivation to get back into the win column. Everything points to a Chiefs win, and though I concede it may not be the most comfortable play or the easiest cover for the defending Super Bowl champions, three points is a safe place to sit. Sixty-seven percent of bets are on Kansas City according to Action Network, and if you’re in the minority thinking about fading Patrick Mahomes here, think again.
Over 39.5 Saints-Panthers
Fell far short of the over in Saints-Titans last week, so we’re doubling down as New Orleans travels to face the Panthers. Sometimes you just have to go back to the well. These two teams combined for just 26 points in their openers, so it’s understandable that this won’t be the most popular pick. I’m aware of their records against the total last season. I’m aware that this matchup has only hit 40 points once in the last five installments. Is there much of a case here? No. Does there always have to be in gambling? No. This is tied for the second-lowest total of the week, and it’s worth rolling the dice to avenge our failure against the over in our first slate. Come back to me Monday night.
Lock of the Week
Packers +110 at Falcons
Green Bay is now a 1.5-point underdog, mostly due to the hamstring injury causing running back Aaron Jones to miss practice and be listed as questionable this weekend. Regardless, give me the Packers — outright. We’ve now entered the Joran Love era on Green Bay, and while he only completed 55.6 percent of his passes against the Bears, he still managed to put up 245 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions on just 15 completions.
Meanwhile, Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder logged an underwhelming 115 yards and one touchdown on his 15 completions. Keep in mind despite Atlanta’s home win against the Panthers a week ago, Carolina recorded more passing yards, rushing yards, first downs, third down conversions and controlled the time of possession. Green Bay shouldn’t have been the underdog last week and certainly shouldn’t be now either. This new-look Packers team clearly doesn’t yet warrant much respect from the sportsbooks, so take advantage while you still can.
If you’ve made it this far, here’s a gift. I’m adding a bonus pick tied to Packers-Falcons. Over 40.5. Lock it in.
