Written by Trevor Ritchie
Back to the books. Five picks, two dogs, two totals, a lone favorite and our first NFL ‘Lock of the Week’ to open the 2023 season.
Degenerate country, let’s ride.
Best Bets
Browns +2 v. Bengals
Most of the public will side with the Bengals as Cleveland is 0-10-1 SU in Week 1 home games over the last 18 years. Deshaun Watson’s also a home underdog for the first time since joining the Browns. Throw all of that out of the window and take Cleveland with the safety net. In the first week of the season, expect the unexpected.
Over 41.5 — Saints v. Titans
Continuing my theme through the first two picks, fade your instinct here. This is one of few Week 1 over plays that still has value, contrary to popular belief. Experts will point to Tennessee’s impressive third down defense from a year ago, or how the Saints were also a top-10 defensive unit, or how Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill are known for two of the slowest pace of play rates in the NFL. However, the sports gods come to disrupt early. Zig where everyone else zags. By no means is 42 points too much of a stretch. Far from it.
Under 51 — Chargers v. Dolphins
Now we move to a little more rationale. Simply play the number. 51 points is far too high — the only total exceeding 50 in Week 1 outside of Thursday’s Chiefs-Lions matchup. Since 2000, the under has hit 54 percent of the time in Week 1. Fifty-two percent conversion rate since 1986, 63 percent dating back to 2021 and 69 percent a year ago. With that to lean on, call this one short on the highest number of the weekend.
Eagles -4 at Patriots
Philadelphia is the second-best choice to win the Super Bowl according to Vegas at 7-1 odds. This Eagles defense has continued to improve, add depth and should be more than capable of causing chaos against Mac Jones to open this campaign. New England is just 1-10 SU over its last 11 games as an underdog, while Philadelphia is 20-3 SU across its last 23 as the favorite. Not to mention, the Eagles have won 10 of their last 12 season openers. Surprised this line doesn’t have more juice, so take advantage.
Lock of the Week
Jets +2.5 v. Bills
Some level of bias certainly shines through with this lock, which even despite such significant additions not everyone is in on this new-look Jets squad, but fading Aaron Rodgers in his debut at the Meadowlands might be the riskiest bet of this slate. Keep in mind, taking the Bills to cover here is a coin flip at best. Buffalo went 4-3-1 ATS in away games last season and 8-9-1 ATS overall. No chance you should be willing to roll the dice given how the Jets have constructed this roster. Enjoy the 2.5-point gift and ride with Gotham City.